Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Gasoline Prices Should Stay Stable

A study at Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy showed that local Houston consumption of gasoline doubled during the recent evacuation increasing nationwide consumption by ten percent.
Locally the volumes went from a normal 22 million gallons per day to 45 million gallons per day.
Nationally they conclude that the increase "resulted in the U.S. effectively having two Labor Days this year in terms of heavy-driving periods."

Although the demand spike was huge, the prices of gasoline should stay around the current $2.80 per gallon level.

Their price analysis is based on a historical comaparison of crude oil prices and resulting price of refined fuel.

The results of the study show that the current price is appropriate for oil prices in the $75 per barrel range.
For gas prices to get to $4.00 per gallon, the price of crude would have to be $120 per barrel.
That is, of course, as long as the historical relationship continues to hold true.

Gas Prices

Rice University Press Release

Full size graph and data


At 9/28/2005 10:07:00 AM, Anonymous Cristobal said...

What's wierd is that gasoline inventories according to the EIA statistics (announced today for the week ending Friday at 7 am) were up and much higher than the consensus. Could it be that while consumption was up, inventories built because they were unable to make deliveries to the stations? So that would mean that next week's numbers should be down more as they make up for delayed deliveries maybe? Who knows. We'll see what they are like next week.


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